Seminar of the School of Physical Sciences
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Statistical Mechanics of Climate
Valerio Lucarini
(University of Reading, Reading, and University of Hamburg, Hamburg)
Date: November 29, 2017 (Wednesday)
Time: 12:00 noon [ ** Please note the time ** ]
Venue: Committee Room, First Floor, [ ** Please note the venue ** ]
School of Physical Sciences (SPS), JNU
Abstract: Understanding the relationship between climate variability across multiple scales and the climate response to forcings is an endeavour of primary relevance both at strictly scientific level and in terms of impacts on human and environmental welfare. In my presentation I will deal with the analysis of climate response to perturbations using methods of dynamical systems theory and nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. The main research programme I currently am working on aims at providing stronger mathematical and physical foundations to climate science. In the first part I will focus on the regimes where we expect a smooth response to perturbations, and I will describe how Ruelle response theory can be effectively used to perform climate projections. In the second part I will instead look in the proximity of critical transitions, where the response is expected to diverge, and in the region of climate multistability. If time allows, I will explain how Ruelle response theory can be used for constructing rigorous parameterisations of unresolved processes.
References
V. Lucarini, R. Blender, C. Herbert, S. Pascale, F. Ragone, and J. Wouters, Mathematical and Physical Ideas for Climate Science, Rev. Geophys. DOI: 10.1002/2013RG000446 (2014)
V. Lucarini, F. Ragone, F. Lunkeit, Predicting Climate Change Using Response Theory: Global Averages and Spatial Patterns, J. Stat. Phys., 166, 1036–1064 (2017)
A. Gritsun, V. Lucarini, Fluctuations, Response, and Resonances in a Simple Atmospheric Model, Physica D Nonlinear Phenomena 349 62-76 (2017)
V. Lucarini, T. Bodai, Edge States in the Climate System: Exploring Global Instabilities and Critical Transitions,Nonlinearity 30 R32-R66 (2017)